Trucking Tonnage Index Edged Up in February

JOC Staff | Mar 20, 2013 4:17PM EDT

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.6 percent to 123.6 in February, after increasing 1 percent in January to 123.

February was the fourth month in a row showing an increase in tonnage. Over the last four months, tonnage cumulatively increased 7.7 percent.

Compared with February 2012, the seasonally adjusted index was up 4.2 percent, just below January’s 4.6 percent year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, compared to the same period in 2012, the tonnage index is up 4.4 percent.

“Fitting with several other key economic indicators, truck tonnage is up earlier than we anticipated this year,” said Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist, in a written statement. “While I think this is a good sign for the industry and the economy, I’m still concerned that freight tonnage will slow in the months ahead as the federal government sequester continues and households finish spending their tax returns. A little longer term, I think the economy and the industry are poised for a more robust recovery.”

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US truck tonnage flat in July

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- US for-hire truck tonnage was flat in July, but up 4.1% compared to last July, marking the best year-over-year gain since February 2012.

Year-to-date, tonnage is up 3.7% compared to 2011, according to the American Trucking Associations.

“July’s reading reflects an economy that has lost some steam, but hasn’t stalled,” ATA chief economist Bob Costello said. “Certainly there has been some better economic news recently, but I continue to believe we will see some deceleration in tonnage during the second half of the year, if for nothing else but very tough comparisons on a robust August through December period in 2011.”

Costello added he expects the slowdown in new factory orders will constrain manufacturing output, which will impact truck freight volumes. He’s also concerned about the recent jump in the total business (manufacturing, wholesale, and retail) inventory-to-sales ratio. “Unintended gains in inventories will hit trucking negatively as the supply chain works off stocks,” Costello said.   

He kept his tonnage outlook for 2012 to the 3-3.5% range as reported last month.

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Truck Tonnage Rises 4.1% in July

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Truck tonnage increased 4.1 % in July from a year ago, American Trucking Associations said Tuesday.

Tonnage was unchanged from June, ATA reported in its seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage report.

The increase was the most year-over-year since February’s 5.5% upturn. Year to date, tonnage is 3.7% higher than the same period last year.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents tonnage actually hauled by fleets, came in at a reading of 119.4, down 2.8% from June. ATA uses the year 2000 as a 100-reading baseline.

“July’s reading reflects an economy that has lost some steam, but hasn’t stalled,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement.

“Certainly there has been some better economic news recently, but I continue to believe we will see some deceleration in tonnage during the second half of the year,” he added, noting a strong run of tonnage in the comparative August-to-December period last year.

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US for-hire truck tonnage bounces back in June

ARLINGTON, Va. -- US for-hire truck tonnage increased 1.2% in June after falling 1.0% in May, according to a report from the American Trucking Associations. (May’s loss was larger than the 0.7% drop ATA reported on June 19.) June’s increase was the largest month-to-month gain in 2012. However, the seasonally-adjusted index contracted a total of 2.1% in April and May. Compared with June 2011, the index was 3.2% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since March. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.7%.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 0.9% below the previous month.

For the second quarter, the seasonally-adjusted index was off 0.8% from the previous quarter, which was the first decrease in a year. Compared with the second quarter in 2011, the index was up 3.5%.

“June’s increase was a pleasant surprise, but the lower year-over-year gain fits with an economy that has slowed,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello. “Manufacturing output was strong in June, which helped tonnage levels.”

Costello said he’s still concerned about businesses sitting on cash instead of hiring more workers or spending it on capital, both of which would give the economy and tonnage a shot in the arm, as they are worried about Europe and the so-called US “fiscal cliff” at the end of the year. Costello lowered his tonnage outlook for 2012 to the 3-3.5% range due to recent economic weakness.

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November Truck Tonnage Rises 6% in Biggest Gain Since June

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Truck tonnage rose 6% in November from a year ago, the biggest increase since June, American Trucking Associations said Wednesday.

The increase rounds out two years of consecutive year-over-year growth, and followed a 5.7% increase in October. In June, tonnage rose 6.5% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, November tonnage was 0.3% higher than October, ATA said in its monthly seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage report.

That followed a revised 0.4% month-to-month gain that had originally been reported as a 0.5% increase.

The seasonally adjusted index for November came in at a reading of 116.6, up from 116.3 in October.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which measures actual tonnage, slipped 2.6% to a 115.3 reading.

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US truck tonnage edges higher in November

ARLINGTON, Va. -- US truck tonnage rose 0.3% in November after rising a revised 0.4% in October, according to the most recent figures from the American Trucking Associations. October's increase was slightly less than the 0.5% gain ATA previously reported.  

Compared with November 2010, seasonally-adjusted tonnage was up 6.0%, the largest year-over-year gain since a 6.5% increase in June. In October, the tonnage index was 5.7% above a year earlier. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage is up 5.4%.
"As I said last month, tonnage levels continue to point to an economy that is growing, not sliding into a recession," said ATA chief economist Bob Costello. "Over the last three months, tonnage is up 2.3% and stands at the highest level since January of this year.
"Two primary factors have helped truck tonnage in recent months. First, manufacturing output, which generates a significant amount of truck freight, has generally been increasing. Second, retail inventories are very lean, which is helping freight as well since retailers don't have much excess stock and need to replenish when sales go up."

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US truck tonnage rises 1.6% in September: ATA report

ARLINGTON, Va. - US truck tonnage rose 1.6% in September after falling a revised 0.5% in August, according to the most recent figures from the American Trucking Associations. August's decrease was more than the 0.2% drop the ATA previously reported. 

Compared with September 2010, seasonally-adjusted tonnage was up a "solid" 5.9% in September and 4.9% year-over-year in August.

"I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession because truck tonnage isn't showing signs that we are in a recession," said ATA chief economist Bob Costello said. "Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but not a recession."

Costello also noted that the third quarter average exhibited signs of small gains for the broader economy, not contraction. "In the third quarter, tonnage was up 0.4% from the second quarter. Prior to the two previous recessions truck tonnage was plummeting, but not this time."

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