Sales of Natural Gas Trucks and Buses Will Reach Nearly 400,000 by 2022, Forecasts Navigant Research

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Driven by the lower cost of natural gas and the lower emissions from natural gas engines, compared to diesel fuel, operators of truck and bus fleets are increasingly shifting to natural gas vehicles. New markets for natural gas vehicles, such as the United States and China, tend to focus on fleet markets, particularly trucks and buses, because they require fewer refueling stations and fuel costs have become the highest or second highest cost for fleets. Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of natural gas trucks and buses will grow from 170,200 annually in 2013 to 398,400 by 2022.

“Demand for natural gas trucks and buses remains uneven on a regional basis,” says Dave Hurst, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “In North America, where natural gas costs remain low, the number of vehicles is outstripping the development of refueling stations. In Asia Pacific, China and other developing markets are looking to natural gas to help address environmental woes in large cities. As a result, the total number of natural gas trucks and buses on the road by 2022 is anticipated to reach nearly 4 million.”

On average, the price of compressed natural gas (CNG) is about 42 percent that of diesel, according to the report. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) tends to be a bit higher, but sees significantly more variability than CNG. Given the difference, the payback period for heavy duty trucks can be as short as 1.5 years in North America. The incremental costs are largely driven by storage tanks for the CNG or LNG, which account for between 53 percent and 76 percent of the total incremental costs.

The report, “Natural Gas Trucks and Buses”, analyzes the global market for trucks and buses that are in the medium duty (10,000 to 26,000 pounds) and heavy duty (26,000 pounds or more) gross vehicle weight classes. The study provides an analysis of related market issues and drivers, including refueling availability, competing alternative drive technology, total cost of ownership, vehicle availability, and government influence. Global market forecasts for vehicle sales, vehicles on the ground, and fuel used are broken out by segment, fuel type, and region and extend through 2022. The report also examines the key technologies related to natural gas storage on vehicles, as well as the competitive landscape. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

About Navigant Research

Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, and Smart Buildings sectors. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.

About Navigant

Navigant is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, “Natural Gas Trucks and Buses,” is a summary and reflects Navigant Research’s current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Navigant Research nor Navigant undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

Net trailer orders in US improve in August: ACT Research

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- Net orders for trailers in the US improved in August, rising to 15,370 units, according to the latest results from ACT Research. Applying August’s seasonal factor brought the order total to 18,200 units.

“Looked at through a seasonal lens, August’s volume was the best since April,” said Frank Maly, director of commercial vehicle transportation with ACT Research. “While improved, annualizing August’s seasonally adjusted order volume generated a lacklustre 219,000 annualized rate of order intake. Orders on a seasonal basis below the build trend is an indication of fleets’ unwillingness to expand investment when the outlook is particularly opaque. Orders typically occur below the rate of build in Q3. Combined with slower economic activity and rising uncertainty, orders are expected to remain soft into Q4.”

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US trailer orders weak in July: ACT Research

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- Keeping in line with seasonal fluctuations, July posted weak order totals for the US trailer industry at 14,500 new orders. Orders were down 5.9% month-over-month, according to the latest figures in ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.

“The net order picture was a bit stronger than new orders, but still down 2% month-over-month,” said Frank Maly, director of commercial vehicle transportation with ACT. “Additionally, the decline in orders outpaced the slide in production, resulting in the lowest level of backlogs since last December. July shipments were up 14.8% year over year, although they were down 12.6% from last month.”

Maly further noted that confidence and availability of funds are at the centre of the pullback by credit buyers, impacting ongoing trailer order demand.

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New truck orders soft in June: ACT Research

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- Class 8 commercial vehicle preliminary net orders remained soft in June, according to reports from ACT Research. Classes 5-7 net orders also fell below trend, but the decline was expected, ACT officials said, as medium-duty activity typically tapers off during the summer months. The final numbers, which will be released mid-July, will approach 16,500 units for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks and 12,900 for medium duty Classes 5-7 vehicles. The preliminary net order numbers are typically accurate to within 5% of actual, according to ACT

“The explanation for the soft patch remains of the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ variety,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research. “As has been the case since late February/early March, the issue appears to boil down to credit-buying truckers’ confidence in the economy relative to the risk of taking out a sizeable loan to buy a truck. To that end, risk, economic or political, domestic or global, remains high, and memories of 2009 are still fresh.”

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Engine Maker Cummins Invests in Research Center Expansion

Independent engine maker Cummins Inc. said it would invest $24 million over three years to expand its Cummins Technical Center research facility in North Charleston, S.C.

Cummins said Wednesday that the investment plan will result in the hiring of 31 new engineers, mechanical and electrical technicians, with more potential hires in the future.

Cummins said the center researches a variety of engines and tests “a wide range of fuels.”

“The expansion nearly doubles capacity at this site with state-of-the-art facilities to enable testing on diesel, pipeline natural gas and non-standard gas engines, and help the company in its drive to be the innovation leader in the industry,” Jim Trueblood, Cummins vice president of high horsepower engineering, said in a statement.

Cummins said that South Carolina state and local officials offered incentives to the company. Cummins did not disclose the incentives.

The release did not mention any specific research into highway engines.

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Class 8 truck orders defy economic doom and gloom: ACT Research

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- ACT Research has reported commercial vehicle order activity strengthened in September, during what is traditionally the weakest new order period of the year.

North American Class 8 net orders rose to 23,600 units, a gain of 55% year-over-year and 12% month-over-month, ACT reported in its latest State of the Industry report.

Classes 5-7 orders were up 8% month-over-month.

"Given the steady drumbeat of bad economic news in July and August, and the retrenchment of consumer confidence, we would have understood if commercial vehicle order activity waned through the balance of Q3, but it didn't," said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. "Class 8 build so far this year stands at more than 180,000 units. Years of deferred purchases are buoying up demand."

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