Truckload Carriers Increase Class 8 Purchasing Plans

William B. Cassidy, Senior Editor | Mar 27, 2013 12:05PM EDT

An increasing number of truckload carriers plan to add capacity over the next 12 months, but not too much capacity, according to Transport Capital Partners.

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Class 8 net orders remain weak in September

NASHVILLE, Ind. -- The Class 8 market remained soft in September, with preliminary net order numbers reported by FTR Associates coming in at the lower end of expectations.

FTR reported preliminary Class 8 truck net orders at 15,205 units, down slightly from August. September orders were 35% below last September, and concluded the weakest quarter since Q3 2010.

The annualized rate for net orders placed in the third quarter is just 174,400 units, FTR reported.

“September orders were at the low end of our expectations so they were somewhat disappointing,” said Eric Starks, FTR president. “We wouldn’t have been surprised to see three to four thousand more units ordered in the month, but the reported numbers were certainly within the range we expected to see, albeit softer than we would have liked. Even with sluggish freight levels, we still expect to see a seasonal bounce in orders during Q4, but likely not at levels that many in the industry are hoping to see.”

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Class 8 orders remain weak in July; analyst blames lack of confidence

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- As expected, Class 8 net orders were weak in July with build rates exceeding the pace of incoming orders.

The most recent data published by ACT Research in its State of the Industry report, showed consistent Classes 5-7 orders but continuing weak orders for Class 8 trucks.

“Concerning the heavy-duty market, we view the unusual pairing of weak orders and low cancellations as a reflection of today’s bifurcated truck market,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. “To that end, we believe confidence is at a key component of the order pullback across a large swath of carriers.”

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Class 8 truck demand strong in October

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- ACT Research has reported demand for Class 8 trucks reached a six-month high in October.

Class 8 net orders rose to 28,026 units in October, indicating 2011 will end on a strong note with production of about 250,000 Class 8 units on the year, setting the stage for a "robust" 2012.

"News from carriers is good," said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. "Expectations for future freight and profitability are upbeat. Coupling truckers' positive outlook into 2012 and the better than consensus economic news supports demand levels that we are seeing in the Class 8 market."

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Freightliner introduces sales incentives for Business Class M2, 114SD

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Freightliner Trucks has launched its Work Smart Strong Finish Retail Sales program. Available in the fourth quarter, the limited-time offer provides special incentives for new Freightliner Business Class M2 trucks or Freightliner 114SD trucks in dealer or corporate inventory financed or leased with Daimler Truck Financial by Dec. 30.

Canadian customers can select from two options: up to $4,300 for an extended basic chassis warranty plus a $1,500 Freightliner Trucks Customer Support MasterCard prepaid card; or up to $5,800 for an extended basic chassis warranty.

"The 114SD and Business Class M2 line of vehicles are designed to enhance efficiency and revenue," said TJ Reed, director of product marketing for Freightliner Trucks. "Our new incentive programs will only further benefit our customers and their bottom lines."

For more information, visit www.freightlinertrucks.com.

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Class 8 truck orders defy economic doom and gloom: ACT Research

COLUMBUS, Ind. -- ACT Research has reported commercial vehicle order activity strengthened in September, during what is traditionally the weakest new order period of the year.

North American Class 8 net orders rose to 23,600 units, a gain of 55% year-over-year and 12% month-over-month, ACT reported in its latest State of the Industry report.

Classes 5-7 orders were up 8% month-over-month.

"Given the steady drumbeat of bad economic news in July and August, and the retrenchment of consumer confidence, we would have understood if commercial vehicle order activity waned through the balance of Q3, but it didn't," said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. "Class 8 build so far this year stands at more than 180,000 units. Years of deferred purchases are buoying up demand."

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The 2011 Chase Class Is Set

Kevin Harvick wins the race at Richmond and gains three more bonus points for the chase seeding. Harvick and Kurt Busch are tied for the top spot with Kurt being seeded number one and Harvick second. I think that Kurt is on top by laps led and not just thrown up there for no reason at all. They are tied in points though so I can’t put either on top of the other. Did you get to watch that race Saturday night? That was a classic barnburner of a race, I just love that ¾ mile short track at Richmond. I wish that Richmond were on the list of chase tracks because it is just plain exciting racing. We do have Martinsville though and that will be another good one. So how do they stack up among each other in the chase rankings? I will look into that in a moment but first I want to address an issue that came up during the post race interviews.

Jeff Gordon was not happy with the late caution that Paul Menard brought by spinning out on the front stretch. The radio traffic between Menard and his Crew made mention of a flat tire. Yet all four tires were up on Menards car. I watched the video and didn’t see why he spun out.

            Here is what Gordon had to say about the spin. “Well, I wasn’t real happy I had to start that last restart on the outside,’’ “My car all night was not good on the outside, and I -- to know with 20 laps to go you’re driving away with the lead, I was feeling pretty good about that.  I didn’t want to see a caution.  I thought it was interesting when I saw a Childress car sitting down this in the grass. “But we dealt with it.  We didn’t have the best of pit stops.  I didn’t do them any favor.  I didn’t get into the box as good as I needed to.  We got beat off pit road, plain and simple.

With that simple statement a whole subject for discussion was born steeped deeply in conspiracy. Jeff Gordon has a point, here we are with a little over 20 laps to go, Gordon has a one second lead over Kevin Harvick who is fading. Then you get a Childress car that is many laps down, spinning on the front stretch all by his lonesome. Harvick gets to pit and wins the race off of pit road and starts on the inside knowing that Gordon’s car is not good on the outside. The green flag fly’s and Harvick pretty much checks out on the field. Jeff Gordon rebounds and holds on to third place but he is not happy about the caution. It is a subject for the fans, bloggers and talking heads only because Nascar didn’t say a word about it as far as I can tell. They will however be watching closely in the chase for any blatant team assistance if you can call it that. I really don’t know what the sanctioning body’s stance is on this subject with the whole “Boys have at it” deal and all. This wasn’t an obvious incident as it is almost impossible to prove that someone spun out intentionally, unless you advertise it on the radio like Dale Junior did once it is very hard to prove. You can bet money though that if you see some one’s team mate wreck another chase driver during the chase Nascar will get involved in that.

That said lets look at the seeding of the 2011 chase. Everyone’s points were reset to 2000 points and drivers with wins were awarded 3 points per win. So the points in the chase now look like this.

Kyle Busch 4 wins 2012 pointsKevin Harvick 4 wins 2012 pointsJeff Gordon 3 wins 2009 pointsMatt Kenseth 2 wins 2006 pointsCarl Edwards 1 win 2003 pointsJimmy Johnson 1 win 2003 pointsKurt Busch 1 win 2003 pointsRyan Newman 1 win 2003 pointsTony Stewart 0 wins 20 00 pointsDale Earnhardt Junior 0 wins 2000 pointsBrad Keselowski 3 wins 2000 points (WC) (Wild card spots don’t get bonus points)Denny Hamlin 1 win 2000 points (WC)

Does making the chase relieve a team of all pressures that accumulated from the attempt at getting in? What I mean, is making the chase enough of a spark to rebound a team that has been either fading at the second half of the season or just holding on enough to make the chase? You have Dale Earnhardt Junior, Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin that made the chase in just that manner. Can any of these three teams turn it on in these last ten races? If you include Ryan Newman in that group do you have a chase that is really going to be ran between the top seven? Dale Earnhardt Junior has not seen the top ten in the last five races, this team has to turn it around right now or they will not have a chance to win the chase. The rest of the chase teams have visited the top ten in the last five races so the team that really needs to turn it around is the 88 team of Dale Earnhardt Junior.

If things stay the way they have been in the past five races I would put my money on Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards. Jeff Gordon is at the top of the power rankings with Kyle Busch in second. Then you have Edwards and Harvick 3rd and 4th. Dale Junior is listed in 13th below A.J. Allmendinger who isn’t in the chase. Man is that a slap in the face for a driver that fought like hell to get into the chase. Performance is everything when it comes to Nascar Power Ranking and the 88 team just hasn’t had it. It has been a “Keep your head above water” kind of run to the end of the regular season. The first chase race is at Chicago this year; maybe they can get the stands full by having the first chase race there? Good luck. Gordon has 41 wins at Intermediate tracks including one win at Chicago back in 2006, plus he is on a hot streak. Those stats put him at the top this week starting the chase at Chicagoland Speedway. Jeff Gordon, by far, has the most wins at intermediate tracks out of all the drivers in the chase. Tony Stewart follows him in second with 20 wins at intermediate tracks but his recent performance has him down at 14th in the power rankings.

             I have a dark horse in this chase that has been coming on strong at the end of the regular season and that is Brad Keselowski. The driver from Michigan is on a roll and I don’t see that ending in the near future. If you think that any of these teams are resting up after making the chase you are sadly mistaken. The top twelve teams are now in overdrive mode as the wick has just been turned up big time. Testing is at a premium along with pit crew practice getting kicked into overdrive as well. Its going to be a great chase.

I’ll be back soon with a look ahead at Chicagoland Speedway. Until then I’m in South Carolina waiting on a load of flour that doesn’t seem to want to load early.

Stay Safe

TW

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