Sales of Natural Gas Trucks and Buses Will Reach Nearly 400,000 by 2022, Forecasts Navigant Research

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Driven by the lower cost of natural gas and the lower emissions from natural gas engines, compared to diesel fuel, operators of truck and bus fleets are increasingly shifting to natural gas vehicles. New markets for natural gas vehicles, such as the United States and China, tend to focus on fleet markets, particularly trucks and buses, because they require fewer refueling stations and fuel costs have become the highest or second highest cost for fleets. Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of natural gas trucks and buses will grow from 170,200 annually in 2013 to 398,400 by 2022.

“Demand for natural gas trucks and buses remains uneven on a regional basis,” says Dave Hurst, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “In North America, where natural gas costs remain low, the number of vehicles is outstripping the development of refueling stations. In Asia Pacific, China and other developing markets are looking to natural gas to help address environmental woes in large cities. As a result, the total number of natural gas trucks and buses on the road by 2022 is anticipated to reach nearly 4 million.”

On average, the price of compressed natural gas (CNG) is about 42 percent that of diesel, according to the report. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) tends to be a bit higher, but sees significantly more variability than CNG. Given the difference, the payback period for heavy duty trucks can be as short as 1.5 years in North America. The incremental costs are largely driven by storage tanks for the CNG or LNG, which account for between 53 percent and 76 percent of the total incremental costs.

The report, “Natural Gas Trucks and Buses”, analyzes the global market for trucks and buses that are in the medium duty (10,000 to 26,000 pounds) and heavy duty (26,000 pounds or more) gross vehicle weight classes. The study provides an analysis of related market issues and drivers, including refueling availability, competing alternative drive technology, total cost of ownership, vehicle availability, and government influence. Global market forecasts for vehicle sales, vehicles on the ground, and fuel used are broken out by segment, fuel type, and region and extend through 2022. The report also examines the key technologies related to natural gas storage on vehicles, as well as the competitive landscape. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

About Navigant Research

Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, and Smart Buildings sectors. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.

About Navigant

Navigant is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, “Natural Gas Trucks and Buses,” is a summary and reflects Navigant Research’s current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Navigant Research nor Navigant undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

US Imports by Rail From NAFTA Partners Nearly Double Value of Exports

JOC Staff | Apr 01, 2013 4:03PM EDT

U.S. cross-border trade by rail with Canada and Mexico

The U.S. is exporting a little over half of what it imports by rail from North American Free Trade Agreement partners Mexico and Canada, according to data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

The value of U.S. rail exports to the rest of NAFTA inched down 1 percent year-over-year and 3.8 percent month-to-month to $4.52 billion in January 2013. In 2012 rail export value soared 11.5 percent over 2011.

The value of U.S. imports by rail from its NAFTA partners in January increased 8.2 percent year-over-year to $8.39 billion; this was down 6.9 percent from the level seen in December 2012. In 2012 rail import value was up 9.7 percent from 2011.

The value of imports by truck grew 1.6 percent in January over the year before to $25.68 billion, which was 10.5 percent than the value imported in December 2012. The value of imports by truck rose just over 6 percent year-over-year in 2012.

U.S. exports by truck rose 4.3 percent in terms of value to $28 billion, up from $26.87 billion in January 2012. The value of exports by truck was also up 13 percent over the level seen in December 2012. The value for the entire year was up 6.4 percent over the level seen in 2011.

BTS noted: “In 2012, 86.5 percent of U.S. merchandise trade by value with Canada and Mexico entered or exited the country by the surface mode of transportation.”

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New Ozzie Mini Artic is Nearly Ready

Remember a little while back I introduced you too a new mate of mine from Australia, Julian Baker. He runs a mini artic around Australia delivering cars under the wing of Ceva Logistics. He currently has a new UD tractor unit in the making. Once again I will leave you in his capable hands, so sit back open a stubbie, chuck another shrimp on the barbie and enjoy reading what Julian has to say;

The new one is a UD too but is quite interesting. In conjunction with the manufacture we have transplanted a 15 inch diff and housing to replace the 13 inch original. The hubs and drums are interchangeable. The project has been delayed and delayed due to sourcing appropriate ratios ex Japan, as the 15 inch was normally on 22.5 inch wheels in Australia, not 17.5. This truck has 4.111 ratio with 0.78 overdrive 6 speed. Also the local senior UD management and Japanese engineering staff had been stalling approval for a few years. I have a friend who heads up UD engineering for Australia/New Zealand. We share a passion for the small, high horsepower tow vehicle but he has struggled to get traction on this project until recently. This type of vehicle sits conveniently in a GVM range that doesn’t require a speed limiter and doesn’t require a log book/work diary (driving hours) when without a trailer. Combined with the low clearance, high manouverability, low loading height and relatively high payload with high GCM we reckon the variant can be a real money making proposition. This little fella is the first UD to be painted Ceva Burgundy on the line too.

The stronger diff will complement the already upgraded gearbox, tail shaft, universals, clutch and engine in the new model. The end result is the higher GCM with a higher torque engine. The new truck will also have far greater redundancy in the driveline. The old MK265 has done a wonderful job, but as it is approaching 1 million kms, all major components have been replaced at least once. I generally sit around 20 tonne but have gone to Melbourne-Perth, Brisbane-Melbourne and numerous Melbourne-Adelaide/Sydneys a tonne or two over. Like the rest of the world we have a love of the SUV and unnecessarily large cars in Australia. Although still far more modest than the Yanks.

It is a little bit of a shame the modified truck isn’t the new, new model with a completely new cab and engine. As Volvo have owned UD for a few years the development of a new medium range took place. The new engine is 280 hp (vs 260) and 883nm (vs 794), still on 235/75 17.5 rubber. GVM is up to 11 tonne and GCM with the big diff will be 23 tonne. I know these numbers aren’t enormous compared to a TGL, LF45 or the 12 tonne Atego sold in Germany with the big rear axle, but Jap trucks are the norm down here. They have sufficient cooling capacity and Jap trucks always deliver what they promise. It’s sort of like ‘under promise, over deliver’.

Anyway, I’m still thrilled my big axle idea has been implemented. The little buggar is going to cost me a fortune as I’ve got a bit carried away with the accessories, but it’s coming along nicely. Things left to do are the bull bar and driving lights (very similar to the old truck), Ceva livery (I’m thinking of putting a big UD logo on the back window too, and maybe my football teams logo:-)), rectangular alloy fuel tanks with matching separate third hydraulic tank, the Alcoas off the old truck with a polish, chrome axle end trims on the drive, nut covers, water tank, tool box, proper drive tyres and leather upholstery. The tanks are 560mm wide x 510mm high, they should really finish the little banger off. They will send me broke alone!! I am a huge fan of the mini prime-mover, this will be my third. Chassis height and tare weight with my trailer are unique. My total tare weight is comparable to the Ceva 6 car trailers my mates tow alone. Therefore my fuel consumption is 0.4-0.7 kms per litre better. It doesn’t sound much, but can be over $100/day if running highway kms. The other blokes are pulling their 6-9 tonne prime-movers for no extra income. Purchase price, and maintenance are slightly less, but these little trucks are a five year proposition towing trailers, not 8 like they old one is.

Of course comfort and cabin room are not comparable in any way to European trucks. I have flirted with buying a MAN for 10 years but LEs then TGLs are like rocking horse droppings here. DAF LF45s don’t cool and Ivecos are terribly unreliable in Aussie conditions. Benz don’t bring Ategos to Australia running on 17.5 inch rims, and the chassis height of the 19.5 inch trucks is pretty high. Avia have been introduced recently but a 4.5 litre engine is reason enough not to consider them. Probably the main reason I haven’t taken the MAN plunge though is the odd stud pattern on the wheels. My current setup runs the same Alcoa 17.5 x 6.75 rims throughout. Even the 8 stud used by DAF and AVIA could be replicated here, but the MAN pattern would be custom custom.

I have recently come back to Melbourne from almost two years fly-in/fly-out in Tasmania. The little truck didn’t come home once. It was my home during the week. In Australia we have an ADR (Australian Design Rule) which grants the bunk in a truck to be a ‘registered sleeping compartment’. The little bunk in the MK has had this accreditation since this cabin was introduced in the mid 90s and until recently was the only narrow Jap cab to be approved. The Isuzu narrow extended cab now complies. You do not have this cab in the UK I believe. Isuzu UK either sell the narrow cab with no bunk, or the wide cab with a bunk. Anyway, I have wrap around curtains and my passenger seat folds flat so I sleep well. An extra foot of bunk and a foot more head room would be very well received though. And more storage space!!! New truck will be two seater with proper consol vs three seater with shallow consol in the back of the middle seat.

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