Showing posts with label Could. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Could. Show all posts

Friday, 31 January 2014

M&A Insights: Backlog of deals could set stage for busy 2014

By: Doug Nix
2014-01-30

We all had high expectations for 2013. A favourable lending environment, deep piles of private equity “dry powder” sitting on the side lines ready to invest and US tax issues seemingly put to rest set up an environment ripe for M&A activity. However, the first half of 2013 was eerily quiet with few completed transactions. Few deals flowed into early 2013 as business sellers raced to complete transactions at the end of 2012 in advance of US tax increases for the coming year. The second half of the year picked up steam and it looked as if we’d be able to make up some ground, however the momentum was not sustainable. With no urgent incentives to finish transactions by year’s end, deals didn’t get done and failed to live up to expectations.

Interestingly, the same factors that created a sluggish 2011, such as uncertainty in “fiscal stability”, crept back in 2013, causing concern for business owners and investors alike. M&A activity hit an eight-year low, dropping below dot com levels. Investors were reluctant to invest in the unfamiliar and so turned to less risky add-on investments to current portfolio holdings. Smaller size deals became highly sought after and values were driven higher.

What’s in store for 2014? We again hear that the coming year is ripe for increases in M&A activity and we are cautiously optimistic. Private equity investors are still flush with cash and looking to invest and the lending environment is favourable. Our dealmakers report a backlog of deals that will close in the first quarter of 2014, kick-starting the year.

According to a recent PwC CEO survey, at least 75% of respondents expected corporate growth from either organic or inorganic means and nearly half of those respondents expected to grow by acquisition within the next 12 months. The middle market will still be that highly sought after place where both strategic and financial buyers will be committing capital so as to keep their risk levels in check.

If you are the owner of a middle market business and will be considering a sale within the next few years, now is a great time to start planning. With the baby boom generation now transitioning from business ownership to retirement, there will be a window of opportunity to exit optimally. You wouldn’t want that window to slip away.

- Doug Nix is vice-chairman of Corporate Finance Associates. For more information, visit www.cfaw.ca

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Friday, 14 September 2012

Insurance telematics could 'flip the underwriting model on its head'

Insurance brokers and providers may soon be asking fleets for access to their telematics data, in an effort to provide more accurate insurance pricing and to help fleets better utilize that data.

It’s a bold new approach that’s already happening in other parts of the world, including Europe and Australia. Here in Canada, Industrial Alliance made waves earlier this year, when it launched a program in Quebec that allowed young drivers to install data recorders in their car and then pay premiums based on their specific driving habits.

Truck News has learned that the concept – sometimes referred to as Pay How You Drive or Pay As You Drive – will soon be rolled out to the Canadian trucking industry. Insurers realize telematics provides the basis for a more accurate means of underwriting risk. Today, brokers and insurers collect the same old data (such as CVOR and CSA scores as well as a five-year claims history) to determine premiums. But insurers have come to realize that basing premiums on past claims isn’t the best way to do things. For starters, it doesn’t address those fleets that employ risky drivers but have avoided accidents through sheer luck.

Using telematics, insurance providers will be able to identify risky driving behaviour that will most likely result in accident over time and can push a fleet to intervene with offending drivers and address unsafe behaviour before that accident occurs. Insurers who tap into their customers’ telematics data will be looking for information on speed, hard braking, abrupt lane changes and rapid acceleration, among other risky behaviours.

“From an underwriting standpoint, it flips the underwriting model on its head,” Scott Cober, vice-president, national leader with Marsh Canada’s trucking practice told Truck News in an interview. “It becomes more of a predictive underwriting model.”

At the very least, using telematics to determine insurance pricing will allow insurers to charge premiums that better reflect a fleet’s likelihood of being involved in a crash. But ideally, insurance providers will use that valuable information to alert a fleet to worrisome trends and encourage interventions before such accidents even occur.

“Fleet insurance underwriters currently review driver abstracts for tickets and look at accidents to assess a high-risk driver in the fleet,” Cober explained. “A fleet’s risky drivers may not be the ones with tickets or accidents, but those who are trending towards bad behaviours on the road – making unsafe lane changes, cornering at high speeds, etc. These drivers are potentially your future accidents and claims. The driver behaviour data (collected through telematics) will help safety managers prevent accidents before they happen.”

Marsh itself will soon be rolling out a new program called the Marsh Driver Improvement System, which will use telematics to monitor driver behaviour and then provide online training for drivers who require it. Zurich Insurance is also at the forefront of using telematics data to improve its services and is in the final stages of developing its Zurich Fleet Intelligence (ZFI) program for the Canadian market. ZFI will consist of a central portal to which its customers’ telematics data will be streamed and then organized for interpretation by both Zurich and the fleet itself.

“In Canada, ZFI takes telematics data provided by the customers and then through a number of different dashboards, not only provides a visual around organizing the data but also allows customers to be able to then take the data from a behavioural standpoint and create training for the particular driver,” Angelique Magi, national director of transportation with Zurich explained.

Zurich is currently in the process of developing Canada-specific training and is working with the leading telematics providers to facilitate the transfer of data to the ZFI portal. It expects to be offering the new service commercially within weeks.

In most cases, insurers will be able to tap into data collected by existing and widely used telematics systems. Other programs may encourage fleets to invest in specific real-time monitoring and coaching systems such as those provided by Green Road and DriveCam. Green Road’s system alerts drivers to risky behaviours in the cab as they occur, while also sending reports to the fleet manager. DriveCam features an in-cab camera that captures video of what transpired in the moments immediately before and after a risky maneuver occurred. In-cab camera technology provides insurers with a useful tool when trying to reconstruct an accident or determine who was at fault.

“We’re using that not only as a behavioural tool, but as a claims tool,” Cober said. “For the first time, we’re gaining insight into what happened and we’re seeing drivers become exonerated from the claim. I think video is going to have a fundamental change on the whole claims process. A fleet can say ‘My driver wasn’t at fault, he was cut off by this driver,’ and on the reverse side, he may know the driver was at fault right away and from the insurance standpoint we can set the reserve up and get ready to pay the claim.”

Some fleets, naturally, will be reluctant to share their telematics data with their insurer. But insurance companies insist fleets have plenty to gain by doing so. This applies both to safe fleets (because they’ll pay premiums that better reflect the skills of their driving force) as well as unsafe fleets (because their insurer will work with them to identify unsafe practices and provide corrective training measures proactively).

“The safest fleets are already being very proactive and are more advanced than the other fleets,” Cober said. “But if you have claims, there’s an issue with your drivers on the road. Fleets that want to improve and become more efficient will turn to technology. To be competitive in this marketplace going forward, those fleets are going to have to do this.”

It’s likely that such programs will be voluntarily, at least initially. But don’t rule out the possibility of an insurance provider requiring the use of telematics for fleets with frequent claims.

“I can see possibly in the future, if a fleet cannot control its claims, that an insurer will say ‘We will insure you, but you need to put these measures in’,” Cober predicted. “I can see insurers using that as an underwriting tool.”

Zurich’s Magi says fleets she has spoken to about sharing their telematics data have so far been receptive, though she is quick to point out Zurich insures mostly large fleets with high US exposure, and the majority of those carriers already employ and understand the benefits of collecting and analyzing telematics data.

“I have never had a customer say ‘I’m not giving you the data you need’,” Magi said. “If anything, they’re asking ‘How can you help me analyze this information so I can utilize it better?’ What telematics does is it gives you a granular view of what’s happening with each particular driver and vehicle on a daily basis. You’re going to see a picture there. Insurers are going to see there is something there and it’s to the customer’s benefit to be able to speak with an educated risk services representative who’s going to be able to dig deeper and find out where the big issues are.”

Eventually, insurance providers may look to provide insight into the operational side of a fleet’s business, in ways that extend beyond managing driver behaviour. As an example, Magi foresees an opportunity to assist with route planning. Insurers may look at a carrier’s lanes and then suggest a route that avoids litigious states or areas where there are weather-related risks at certain times of the year. Carriers would then be faced with the decision of taking the most direct route and possibly paying a higher premium, or a safer route that will provide insurance savings. All this while meeting the demands of the shipper, which in many cases will be looking for the most expedient delivery of its goods.

“Ideally in the future the technology will get to a point where you look at ‘What is the safest route to get to a point?’ and there’s a charge for that,” Magi said. “If you (as an insurance company) have a true partnership with a customer, you’re going to sit down together and talk about this from a pure business perspective. What is the cost-benefit analysis for your operation to take this particular route versus the potential loss if you take a different route? It factors into their deductible. There are going to be customers that are going to be absolutely operations-minded and some customers will look at route utilization with a holistic approach as to how it’s going to affect their insurance.”

Magi noted insurance, in many cases, is a carrier’s third largest expense and so she expects fleets will be willing to alter their routes to lower costs.

Proponents of insurance telematics insist the data that’s collected and shared will always belong to the carrier.

“This isn’t about Zurich going in and mining information from the customers,” Magi stressed. “The customers can share this information with us if they choose to. Ideally, the purpose of what we’re trying to do is to show them how to better utilize that particular data.”

There are privacy issues, as well, to consider. Cober noted Canada’s stringent privacy laws mean insurers won’t be drilling down to assess drivers on an individual basis, but will be looking at a company’s fleet-wide performance.

“Because of the privacy laws, we are saying to trucking companies ‘You supply the data to your insurer in a condensed manner without giving driver names, without giving vehicle numbers, just give a holistic view of how the fleet is doing,’ and we’ll take that monthly or quarterly and what we want to see is continuous improvement,” he explained. “Canada has some pretty tough privacy rules.”

While fleet managers may see the benefit in participating in a telematics-based Pay How You Drive-type system, drivers themselves may be more resistant. Cober insisted the systems endorsed by insurers will be sophisticated enough to account for false alerts caused by other motorists.

“We know things happen on the road and it’s going to be quite common to have errors because of third-parties cutting in front (of the truck),” Cober said. He suggested fleets employing driver behaviour monitoring use it to reward the best drivers rather than installing the systems for strictly punitive or corrective reasons.

“If it’s seen as a penalty or Big Brother, I think the safety culture of the company won’t flourish,” he noted. “It needs to be promoted as positive reinforcement for the drivers and to reward drivers for good behaviour.”

Regardless of how drivers and fleet owners feel about sharing telematics data with their insurer, it seems inevitable. Canada is late to the party, but globally the auto insurance industry is already moving in this direction.

An Oliver Wyman Financial Services report, titled Uneven Road Ahead: Telematics Poised to Reshape Auto Industry, concluded: “As technology costs fall, privacy concerns recede and regulations become more supportive, telematics is fast moving into the mainstream and will fundamentally disrupt the auto insurance business. The threat to late adopters is real: better drivers will enroll in telematics programs, leaving behind a shrinking pool of poorer risks to the traditional insurers.”

The same could be said for trucking companies.

Cober noted that by 2017, it’s expected that new vehicles manufactured in North America will come equipped with some form of telematics hardware already installed, “making the insurance telematics process easier for consumers who may be confused on what actual hardware is required in their vehicle.”

Another objection likely to be faced by insurers is the cost of implementing the necessary technology, particularly for smaller fleets that don’t already employ some form of telematics. But Cober said the cost of the technology is rapidly dropping and the potential savings extend beyond lower insurance costs, delivering a quick payback.

“Traditionally, only the big fleets could afford the technology. But because the technology costs have been dropping, we’re beginning to see the middle market fleets – the fleets with 10-50 power units – can now afford this technology and can see the return on investment,” he said.

Because telematics can improve driver behaviour and address bad habits like rapid acceleration and hard braking as well as speeding, Cober said many fleets are realizing fuel savings of 5-10% when employing a telematics system that monitors driver behaviour.

“We’re seeing fleets that in the first three to six months, are seeing their investment returned,” Cober said.

And for fleets that proactively monitor and address poor driving habits, the insurance savings will also be tangible, he noted. While premium reductions are generally a reward for lower claims costs achieved over a period of time, Cober said it’s possible insurers will provide some up-front savings for fleets that enroll in a telematics program.

And when fleets discover the additional savings that are achievable by analyzing their telematics data with some help from their insurance provider, Magi said the idea will become an easier sell.

“At the end of the day, really, they’re truckers,” she said. “They want to be able to move freight and run their business. They’re not actuaries that deal with statistics. If we can provide them with the tools and solutions that make it easier for them to very quickly analyze (data) and see a problem, we’ve done them a huge benefit but we’ve also done our bottom line a benefit as well.”

- The above feature article appears in the September issues of Truck News and Truck West


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Friday, 7 September 2012

N.Y. Thruway Toll Increase Could Have 'Damaging Effects,' State Official Says

A proposed 45% increase in truck tolls on the New York State Thruway could have “damaging effects” on consumers and businesses struggling to recover from the recession, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said.

In an analysis of the proposed toll increase released last week, DiNapoli said that instead of increasing truck tolls, the thruway authority should cut costs and find other ways to raise revenue.

Under the proposed toll rate schedule unveiled in May, a five-axle truck now paying $68.95 to run the length of the road would pay almost $100.

Meanwhile, a $5.4 billion plan to build a new Tappan Zee bridge in New York was approved Monday by a New York State transportation board, the Associated Press reported.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed a letter of intent to U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood, after the vote to formally apply for the funds to build the new bridge, according to the governor’s website.


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Friday, 12 August 2011

Flash Mobs in Trucking? Could “they” happen?

dcWe’ve all seen the “vids” on the news and on YouTube. The texts, Tweets, IM’s and e-mails instructing people where to go, meet up, hang out and we’ll see what happens next.  The definition of a flash mob (or flashmob) is “a large group of people who assemble suddenly in a public place, perform an unusual and pointless act for a brief time, then disperse. Or, any group of people who appear from out of nowhere, to perform predetermined actions, designed to amuse and confuse surrounding people."

Have you ever seen a flash mob in trucking? Think hard. You’ve seen one and perhaps not realized what it was. Here’s the scenario. A busy truck stop at about 5:30pm on a sweltering humid day. Trucks are coming in off the road to find a space to stay overnight or to park, get some dinner, a shower and then depart for their nightly run. Maybe, it’s one the those medium sized old T/A’s in the Northeast, or that unsafe poorly designed FJ (Flying J) in Phoenix or the “tight” Pilot in Birmingham.

imagesThe fuel islands are backed up into the street, and there is a convergence of Swift and England newbies alongside veterans who have no tolerance for them. A trainer jumps out of the truck to try and direct a driver with his 53 ft axles to the rear, fully loaded heavy trailer back along the melting pavement into one of the tight spots. The line of trucks and drivers waiting to proceed and get on with business is growing. Some, already parked, are rushing inside the travel plaza to grab a shower before the wait list gets too long. Mix in the beggars, peddlers and sellers (and lot lizards) running up to every parked rig that has successfully navigated into a space and has just applied their brakes to shut down for the night.

You’ve been here before. You know what it’s like. You’re expecting it. Then, BOOM! A trailer backing up cut it too tight and ripped the bumper and marker light off of the adjacent trucks. It shook the driver right out of his bunk. And, like ants converging on a piece of discarded fruit, truckers arrive on scene from everywhere. They come to witness, to accuse, to call the cops, to take photographs, to say I told you so, to chastise the stupidity of the offending driver and to blow off steam at the end of a hard, hot day. It starts off innocently, but I’ve seen it erupt into arguments, fist fights, pushing and shoving, arms flailing and name calling, threats being made, all having nothing to do with the actual accident.

images (1)It’s the trucking version of a flashmob. With truck drivers, you don’t need social media to start it. It’s just something that happens on the road. I’ve also seen it “flair up” at some shippers and consignee’s. The question is though, will the dramatic increase in the use of Twitter, Facebook, Google+, texting and IM’ing (instant messaging) among truckers, result in a flash mob mentality – possibly resulting in violence? We’ve all seen what happened the past week over in the UK, when young gangs, communicating by way of “social media”, defied police and looted, mugged and set ablaze businesses and residences as people watched in horror.

What if a driver is being given a “hard time” by a DOT officer in a weigh station somewhere. He feels he is being singled out and unfairly shut down. It’s a busy “chicken coop” and the line of trucks waiting to go over the scale goes way out on to the interstate. PrePass is not working. Most drivers have their CB’s shut off, listening to satellite radio and keeping an eye on the Facebook and Twitter “chatter”. What if an angry driver listening to the exchange inside the scale house tweets that this DOT officer needs to be taught a “lesson.” Haven’t we all had enough of “this” he IM’s? Let’s stand up for our rights already!

1Back on the line for the scale and out on the highway “friends” get the message. Could you not see these drivers pulling over and getting out of their trucks and walking over the support the driver? That this is the end of the days that truckers should be seen and not heard and some action is finally taken? What is a driver is in a truck stop and getting angry because the truck in front on him/her on the fuel island hasn’t moved for twenty minutes? What about at the Wal-Mart DC and a driver is yelled at by security for driving too fast though the lot? There could be a thousand reasons.

Could this be the “venting” that truck drivers have always been seeking? In London the flashmob succeeded in burning down an entire Sony distribution center. Would this happen here? Why not? Clearly, we have not seen the “flash-point” of truckers anger in many years. It used to be there – the threat and reality of strikes and protest involving pay and fuel prices – but that was decades ago. But it’s out there, lying under the surface. Is it just waiting for a “vehicle”, a “platform” to launch an explosion – a flashmob?

I say yes, what say you?

PS/from Wikipedia - 

“The first flash mob was created in Manhattan in May 2003, by Bill Wasik, senior editor of Harper’s Magazine. The first attempt was unsuccessful after the targeted retail store was tipped off about the plan for people to gather. Wasik avoided such problems during the second flash mob, which occurred on June 3, 2003, at Macy’s department store, by sending participants to preliminary staging areas – in four prearranged Manhattan bars – where they received further instructions about the ultimate event and location just before the event began.

More than 130 people converged upon the ninth floor rug department of the store, gathering around an expensive rug. Anyone approached by a sales assistant was advised to say that the gatherers lived together in a warehouse on the outskirts of New York, that they were shopping for a "love rug", and that they made all their purchase decisions as a group. Subsequently, 200 people flooded the lobby and mezzanine of the Hyatt hotel in synchronized applause for about 15 seconds, and a shoe boutique in SoHo was invaded by participants pretending to be tourists on a bus trip.[9]

Wasik claimed that he created flash mobs as a social experiment designed to poke fun at hipsters and to highlight the cultural atmosphere of conformity and of wanting to be an insider or part of "the next big thing”. The Vancouver Sun wrote, "It may have backfired on him … [Wasik] may instead have ended up giving conformity a vehicle that allowed it to appear nonconforming." In another interview he said "the mobs started as a kind of playful social experiment meant to encourage spontaneity and big gatherings to temporarily take over commercial and public areas simply to show that they could.”

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